When Will the New Normal Settle In?

It seems everyone wants to know when this will end. The ideas being...  if covid were conquered or the supply chain crisis were resolved, as well as a host of others... things will get back to normal or at least a new normal. I guess we all want a bit of stability.

I'm not an expert in these matters, but like any red blooded knucklehead, I must tackle the question or get tackled back.

The biggest complaint seems to be inflation. I would suggest that the holidays could end the excessive consumer spending. I base the term excessive on the massive jump in durable and non-durable goods back in about April. Non-durables seem to be decelerating somewhat, although not rapidly. Of course many of these items can link back to imports and current port congestion.

I suspect this will begin to drop rather quickly in January. That might reduce the stress on the ports and some of the inland shipping. Maybe February for that part. 

As a result the ever escalating inflation trend might flatten out a bit. Note I said flatten out a bit... not drop. A lot of uncertainty regarding that. Just because the port congestion and inland shipping might be easing up at that point, does not mean the cost of what is being imported is going down. Not by a long shot, in my opinion. Granted the supply might outstrip some of the supply, but not every case. 

I really should bring up the 800lb gorilla that started this mess... Covid. As any good American, I tend to look at things American, without consideration of the rest of the globe. And Covid is a Global Pandemic. 

Best case scenario would be sometime next summer, the globe will have sufficiently wrestled the death rates to an acceptable level. It would be foolish to think it is going to be eradicated anytime soon. In the interim, there will continue to be stoppages in all manner of production, distribution amongst many of our trading partners.

This will continue create spot shortages, panic buying, hoarding, etc. I would expect food to be inflationary for another year, as weather related issues driving up costs, require another growing season. Energy is dependent on consumption, so not sure it will go much higher and could go lower... if consumption fell. A recession would certainly drive down the price and reduce inflation on many items... other than food.

Maybe, just maybe, a new type of normal will evolve, nearing New Year's Eve 2023.  

But then, that would assume no new variant crops up that is more transmissible or deadlier or vaccine resistant or some combination or even all.

Maybe the new normal is already here and we just need to adjust. [sigh] And a newer normal, one year from now... etc.