My electricity bills over time (December 2023 Edition)

It's December and the monthly bill has arrived.

As always, weather is a factor in consumption, which is why a rolling average is also important. Currently, that 12 month rolling average is -2.4% below last year. 

[I suspect it might continue to be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.

Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]

The conclusion at this point, is this year's electricity bill is running -2.7% below last year. THAT is a good thing. 😀

To put my in perspective the average family spends $160.22 per month on Electricity. They also, spend roughly $2,600 on gasoline per year, whereas I spend roughly $200.

The point being, I am not average. None of us are truly average... we are above or below in most things.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VI

Here we go...

Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.

The current problem is Biden is not only trailing in nationwide polling, but in those "toss-up" states. A long haul at the moment, imho.

This is the current outlook, when adjusting for polling discrepancies in the last two elections. 

12-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for November Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, November Report.

First up should be the revisions...

Note the -0.2% downward revision in October's numbers and as always, remember this data is NOT inflation adjusted. Now onto the current report...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2022.

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

It is hard to capture from the graph, but "Real" sales are advancing very slowly since January, although still below 2022 average levels. Year over year, up +0.8% inflation adjusted, with the month being up +0.5% after inflation adjustements. 

So it can be called a win.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-13-2023, per EIA.GOV

Just some charts to summarize today's report...

Prices continue to fall and could challenge the December 23rd, 2022 low of $3.096... In fact it is more than possible, imho, as I would currently project $3.072.

But, I think we are nearer the bottom of the seasonal gasoline price dip. Maybe a good time to top off the tank, imho.

As for the overall summary...

Not sure what the ruckus is about, regarding that crude draw. 

Producer Price Index December release November 2023 Data

The BLS has released the November Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

In November, the indexes for both final demand goods and for final demand services were unchanged. 

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods was unchanged in November after dropping 1.4 percent in October. In November, price increases of 0.6 percent for final demand foods and 0.2 percent for final demand goods less foods and energy offset a 1.2-percent decrease in the index for final demand energy.

Let's revisit that paragraph. What did the -1.2% decrease in the index for final demand energy... offset?

Within final demand goods in November, prices for chicken eggs jumped 58.8 percent. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons, utility natural gas, electric power, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. In contrast, prices for gasoline fell 4.1 percent.

So gasoline (-4.1%), which is typically moving into seasonal lows, is the reason for that -1.2% decrease, which offsets a bunch of rises in food (+0.6%) and other energy components. 

Not to nitpick, but if gasoline is having that impact, and is moving into seasonal lows, which might continue through the December release... could reverse beginning after Christmas, just like last year.

For those of us that like to eat food, that annualized 7.2% increase in food is going to weigh on the budget of many of us, unless we decide to eat less and lose "weight".

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 12, 2023

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

I think the numbers were somewhat in line with everyone's expectations.

I do find the food portion of the darn thing a bit intriguing.

While the overall index has increased 17.4% since January, 2021, the food at home index has jumped 20.3%

Oddly, when adjusting the index to "average" household spending the food at home has jumped 29.6%, in current dollars.

What really catches the eye, is the -8.5% drop in current dollars for food away from home. This would be cafeterias, restaurants, and other places "away" from home.

This type of comparison with weightings against the index, further indicates a drop in current dollar spending for food in all categories... compared to rate of inflation.

The CPI index has an increase in prices of 20%, yet current dollar spending is 11.6%. The food away from home industry is not keeping up, as I suspect more meals are prepared at home... or people are cutting back on eating. [NOT]

As for Real Earnings.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Here is a graph...

Tis a nickel better than February, 2020. Merry Christmas!

 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part V

Here is another stab at the 2024 election. Trump appears to be ahead with polling numbers of 44.1%. compared to Biden's 43.3%. Very tight indeed, until polling of individual states relative to electoral votes is considered.

Took a hard look at the virtual locks, in regards to electoral votes, which resulted with Biden having 212 electoral votes locked up, and Trump with 149.

When I say "locked up", I am referring to places like California, Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, etc. It should be obvious whether they are blue or red. So stencil them in.

However, in 2024, there are some hard leans, as well.

Florida has Trump with a 9 point lead in the polls. Consider where the polls were in 2016 and 2020, the compare to results. That 9 point lead is significant. 

Again, Georgia was not really that far out of whack in the 2016 and 2020 polls, so the polls for this year having Trump with a 7 point lead... is quite meaningful.

That trend continues with the other "hard leans" listed, which results in Trump holding a 251~216 lead at this point.

So Trump just needs 19 of 71 remaining EVs. The opposite of that... Biden needs 54 of the remaing EVs.

Turning it around might be possible for Biden. 

However, Ukraine is still an issue on his watch, as well as that Middle East mess. Not seeing any upward lift being provided by those.

Economy, could be an issue, but not a lot of upward lift to be seen in this area. Sure, GDP was up 5.2% annualized, but don't forget a massive adjustment was just undertaken, by moving the numbers from 2012 dollars... to 2017 dollars. I alluded to this in a previous article.

On January 25, 2024, the BEA will likely report something in the 1.5%~2.0% annualized GDP growth. A lot of whining will take place about how the economy has gone from robust to anemic. Both are rather silly, but the resultant public opinion will not likely provide any huge boost for Biden.

That report will be followed about 3 weeks later, with the CPI report for January.

There is the inflation issue, of which will be largely cheered with both the November (DEC release) and December (JAN Release) data releases. Both of which will indicate a shallowing month to month rate of inflation.

However, both months will be a result of significantly lower gasoline prices, which is a seasonal norm. While making up a small percentage of consumer spending, the impact will be enough to bring month to month to zero and very likely negative. 

Once again, that news turns south with that February release of January's CPI data. Why? Those falling gasoline prices will be in the rear view mirror, and will be rising... We are getting into the heart of political silly season by then.

Frankly, rising gas prices will bring out the grocery prices are much higher crowd. It may well be, but this is about the attitude of voters... which won't be uplifting for the Biden campaign. Voters tend to remember things from days past, when they look at the grocery receipts and those numbers on the gasoline pump.

So not a lot of upside going forward, imho... for a Biden rebound.

Remember, the perception needs to change for Biden to reverse his current dismal ratings.