Review of November 2023 data, GDP, PCE and personal income

 I'll try not to harp about this too much. The BEA switched from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars for 3Q23, and adjusted prior data. I download all such reports, so I can easily tell the difference.

The trade deficit is a drag on GDP, thus in the 2Q23 original report, that drag was -5.95%. As of right now, after those adjustments... the drag is-4.14%. Quite an improvement. The stated +4.9% GDP is a catch up to what can only be viewed as under-reporting of previous quarters. 

How that change affects going forward, is uncertain to me. Given the wide array of expectations for 4Q23, I am thinking not everyone is on the same page. I am done harping about this.

Now on to the PCE report, after reviewing adjustments...

Yes, inflation is slowing, not deflating, with the exception of gasoline, which looks to have stopped falling.

The monthly summary...

All in all, a pretty good monthly report card. I do think the market is making too big a deal on expectations of the FED cutting rates before summer, but what do I know?

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- December, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of November data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

For those individuals unable to think on their own and unable to question their masters, here is a timeline in rebuttal to the everyone has inflation. Look at the above chart to consider the timeline and now look at the below chart...

The EU method of calculating inflation is used, to better gain an apples to apples comparison. Yes, that line on top is U.S. inflation running well ahead of the EU and UK, or (sadly) what the your masters consider the rest of the world in U.S. political speak.

Geez!!!

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-20-2023, per EIA.GOV

Another week, and another set of charts summarizing things from the Energy Information Administration...

Consumption of gasoline is easing upwards, although may slide after Christmas. The prices are below this time last year, but are likely to edge up following Christmas... just like last year. (They have edged up the past two days.)

Overall...

For those interested the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

That's a wrap for this week.

My electricity bills over time (December 2023 Edition)

It's December and the monthly bill has arrived.

As always, weather is a factor in consumption, which is why a rolling average is also important. Currently, that 12 month rolling average is -2.4% below last year. 

[I suspect it might continue to be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.

Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]

The conclusion at this point, is this year's electricity bill is running -2.7% below last year. THAT is a good thing. 😀

To put my in perspective the average family spends $160.22 per month on Electricity. They also, spend roughly $2,600 on gasoline per year, whereas I spend roughly $200.

The point being, I am not average. None of us are truly average... we are above or below in most things.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VI

Here we go...

Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.

The current problem is Biden is not only trailing in nationwide polling, but in those "toss-up" states. A long haul at the moment, imho.

This is the current outlook, when adjusting for polling discrepancies in the last two elections. 

12-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for November Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, November Report.

First up should be the revisions...

Note the -0.2% downward revision in October's numbers and as always, remember this data is NOT inflation adjusted. Now onto the current report...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2022.

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

It is hard to capture from the graph, but "Real" sales are advancing very slowly since January, although still below 2022 average levels. Year over year, up +0.8% inflation adjusted, with the month being up +0.5% after inflation adjustements. 

So it can be called a win.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-13-2023, per EIA.GOV

Just some charts to summarize today's report...

Prices continue to fall and could challenge the December 23rd, 2022 low of $3.096... In fact it is more than possible, imho, as I would currently project $3.072.

But, I think we are nearer the bottom of the seasonal gasoline price dip. Maybe a good time to top off the tank, imho.

As for the overall summary...

Not sure what the ruckus is about, regarding that crude draw.