BLS Data Dump. CPI - January 11, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

Not sure what the hoopla is about, regarding coming in hotter than expected. Factoring the rounding, it was just a few basis points above my expectations.

The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and the gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent. 

I highlighted a portion of that statements, as it is weird as heck. Gasoline in the November report was 297.598 and December gave a 280.289. Granted that is "unadjusted", but seriously... where did the increase in gasoline index come from? Nationally, the prices are down from last month, about 18¢ and down about 9¢ from December of 2022. Yet, somehow the "seasonally adjusted" edged up enough to offset something else.

Even by the BLS numbers from December, 2022... gasoline fell -1.5% (unadjusted)  on the month and was -9.4% on the seasonal adjustments. December, 2023... saw gasoline fall -1.9% on the unadjusted monthly, ... but rose +0.2 of the seasonal adjustments.  

In any case, the top number has decreased for 3 consecutive months. Now that would be seasonal, as November and December of 2022... saw decreases. It reversed in the January 2023 report.

My own personal CPI looks like this...

That is a +2.2% increase annually, and +0.1% for the month.

As for Real Earnings.

Remember when covid disrupted everything and massive shutdowns, layoffs, etc. Comparing that $380.95 real weekly earning, compared to February, 2020's $378.92. 

It is better than nothing!

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption continues to edge up on a yearly basis, when  adjusting for inventory. Weekly, consumption has slid 2 consecutive weeks, similar to previous years. We'll need to see if seasonal patterns continue in the next couple of weeks... and beyond.

Pricing continues to remain stable...

The overall picture...

Crude inventories increased +1.3M barrels; distillates up +6.5M barrels; gasoline up +8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Looks like good news, but will it continue?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VIII

Onward and upward, or something akin to that adage.

As I delve further into the 2024 election process, I should briefly review previous posts, where I alluded to polls being wrong, but consistently wrong in the 2016 and 2020 General Elections. Further review... indicated those tendencies back to the 2000 election. 

Why, I don't know, but gave some ideas. 

It should be noted that evaluation of previous general election polling trends, really did not get reviewed until the party nomination was largely settled. More into Spring until the general election. The assumption of the 2024 nominations being settled, is a bit of fantasy. 

Currently, it would be hard to disagree with the following chart, as to which states are almost certain to fall into one column, which leaves 188 toss-ups. I allowed for Maine and Nebraska, due to split electoral voting system.

Speaking of Maine and Nebraska, it is likely that the single votes in the toss-up column will go blue or red. Thus the R-149 and D-203.

The variance chart...

Texas seems to be in the toss-up column, although not sure why. This is somewhat due to the tendency of polls to slightly understate the democrat votes. Still, the state falls into republican territory quite comfortably. Now it is R-189 and D-203.

Florida is next up and the polls for the state, tend to slightly overstate the democrat support, while understating the republican support. Thus Florida with its 30 EVs moves the needle to R-219 and D-203.

Virginia (13) keeps getting into the toss-up category. It puzzles me as to why, as it will very likely vote the democrat candidate and has a stellar polling v result score, imo. Thus R-219 and D-216.

I will lump Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) together, as they both have been consistently correct in polling matching outcomes. Polls seem to indicate a fairly strong republican tendency, which translates to R-246 and D-216.

Might as well get Wisconsin (10) out of the way. Of all the states with polling discrepancies, compared to results... Wisconsin is very high on the list, with a 6.5 variance, which tends to favor republicans. Polling greatly underestimates republican support and overestimates democrat support, when compared to general election results. Having stated that, the narrow polling margin, which is slightly in favor of Trump, indicates R-256 and D-216.

That leaves 66 electoral votes to decide the election. 

I haven't even gotten to North Carolina (16), which appears almost certain to fall into the R column. Now it is R-272 and D-216.

Now for Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19). Two states, which closely follow Wisconsin in under-reporting republican support and overstating democrat support. That both states are indicating a republican advantage, before looking at previous polling errors, it seems appropriate to throw them into the repubican slot. R-306 and D-216.

Nevada you say. Nevada (6) is currently leaning R, but previous history, indicates under-reporting democrat support. Still a slight edge for R, but very slight. Now it is R-306, D-216, and T-6.

Then there is the curious case of Minnesota (10), which has historically been polled with Rs being underestimated, and Ds being overestimated, compared to general election. That polling is currently very narrow, which could possibly be a problem for Dems.

R-306, D-216, and T-16.

There is a lot of time left to change things. Of course, there is always time to change things... until time runs out. 

I will resist the temptation to post frequently, but if those EVs change, then I might jump in.  

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption slid, although not sure if a downward trend is developing. Last year's data would indicate a downward direction for a couple more weeks. 

Pricing seems to be at a plateau, with very small movements in either direction.

The overall picture...

While crude inventories slipped (-5.5M barrels) from last week, the Gasoline and Distillate inventories rose by 10M barrels each. Even the SPR increased by 1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

All is well, until things become unwell! 

That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-28-2023, per EIA.GOV

A quick summary of this week's report.

Consumption continues to edge upward, although pump prices seem to be in a narrow range. There does not seem to be an upward bias in these prices, with the potential of -5¢ drop, which includes diesel.

Overall...

For those interested the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

That's a wrap for this week.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VII

Onward I go into the endless fun of politics.

As stated previously, yes the polls are wrong, but in what way? Oddly, the polls that were wrong, were consistently wrong in both 2016 and 2020.

As can be noted, Arizona and Virgina were downright accurate. Georgia, New York and Washington near perfect, each with a very slight variance benefitting one party.

Some states had very poor polls to results variance. This could be attributable to a few factors...

• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, in a heavily republican state?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, in a heavily democrat state?
• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, when victory is assured?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, when victory is assured?
• Perhaps the polling does not reflect the results, due to individuals hiding their true opinions, due to fear.

In any case, where polls have been wrong, they were equally wrong in both elections.

Wisconsin was a clear Clinton victory, until it wasn't. Wisconsin was an even more clear Biden victory, but it was downright scary close.

That same scenario played out in Pennsylvania and to some extent Michigan.

Naturally, some states are already decided, in my opinion. It is the so called battleground states that are intriquing.

When taking that information and reviewing the current polling composite...

Currently, the Locks and those Leaning, favor the Republican Candidate. The Democrat Candidate needs to hold Virginia, Minnesota and Colorado. Nevada(6) could be swung around, as well as Pennsylvania(19) and possibly Michigan(15), although not so favorable at this point.

That still leaves the need for one more state and it is hard to make a case for any, based on past polling discrepancies.

That is why so much concern is emanating from the Democrat party.

As to Colorado and the 14th amendment. I guess the courts will decide, but whether Trump is on the ballot or not, Colorado's 10 EVs are still Blue. Just as they would, for several other states attempting to jump on the bandwagon. Same could be said for Red states.

Keeping someone of the primary ballot does not mean keeping them off the general election ballot.

Makes for great theater and the clickbait media coverage is in full swing.

Whether any of it amounts to anything, is yet to be seen.

Merry Christmas!

Review of November 2023 data, GDP, PCE and personal income

 I'll try not to harp about this too much. The BEA switched from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars for 3Q23, and adjusted prior data. I download all such reports, so I can easily tell the difference.

The trade deficit is a drag on GDP, thus in the 2Q23 original report, that drag was -5.95%. As of right now, after those adjustments... the drag is-4.14%. Quite an improvement. The stated +4.9% GDP is a catch up to what can only be viewed as under-reporting of previous quarters. 

How that change affects going forward, is uncertain to me. Given the wide array of expectations for 4Q23, I am thinking not everyone is on the same page. I am done harping about this.

Now on to the PCE report, after reviewing adjustments...

Yes, inflation is slowing, not deflating, with the exception of gasoline, which looks to have stopped falling.

The monthly summary...

All in all, a pretty good monthly report card. I do think the market is making too big a deal on expectations of the FED cutting rates before summer, but what do I know?