BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - July 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. 

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $383.49.

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.79.

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 329.92.

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - July 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]

A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty. 

A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.

That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.

Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y and 0.1% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

Don't get me wrong, I would rather the COLA goes lower, as that indicates less inflation. I do, however, need to adjust my spending, or suck it up.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +2.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -0.5¢, or -0.1%. Days supply slipped from  25.2 to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.7.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -3.4M barrels; Distillates up +4.9M barrels; Gasoline down -2.0M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide rose +3M barrels, with the SPR rising +477K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $25.87, to $23.36. Gasoline at $13.97 from last week's $15.30. Distillates to $9.39, compared to last week's $10.57.

That downward push seems to indicate an easing in pump prices.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 7th Edition

Another week, with post debate polls starting to trickle in. Oddly, there is some truth to the idea that Biden may have weathered the storm, but that doesn't mean he is sailing to victory.

Biden is not really in any better shape, than before the debate. As for the impact, that will require a couple more weeks of data, or possibly more. One single polling outlet is not sufficient and the polls must really be state level to gauge the Electoral votes.

Currently, my numbers indicate a Trump lead of +0.6% over Biden in national polling. 538 has Trump at 42.0%, and Biden at 39.9%. Pre-debate had Trump at 41.1%, to Biden at 40.9%. That might seem that Biden is falling, but he has risen from 39.7% and Trump has ease from 42.2%

In any case, this is far from the 52.1% to 41.5% lead, enjoyed by Biden... exactly 4 years ago.

Also, there is the Electoral Vote situation.

Michigan has moved back into toss-up range, but Maine has moved all 4 EVs into the Trump category. Additionally, New Hampshire has moved into toss-up range, after not being considered a battleground state. 

I have seen some reports of New Jersey and New Mexico as now being toss-ups. I truly have problems with those contentions and will stick with my methodology. That doesn't mean I am right.

So Biden has said he will not drop out of the race. Biden was losing before the debate and that has not changed. The debate has given cover to democrats to alter the ticket, or so they think. Aside from the problem of being a defender of democracy and overlooking the primary votes, they have significant other problems, imho.

Starting with Kamala Harris. Is she a liability to the ticket or the savior? I see no evidence that she would improve the chances, although a V.P. selection could help. Still, she would be the top of the ticket and the knives will come out.

Michelle Obama's name has been pitched, but she has denied interest. She would have the Harris dilemma to contend with, as well.

Replacing Biden and Harris as nominees... would result in major dilemmas.

Its almost as if the Trump convictions were supposed to sink Trump in the polls, and when that did not happen... Biden was thrown to the wolves. He could have easily stated it would be inappropriate to debate a convicted felon. 

Yet now he is getting sage advice from a different convicted felon.

It is so sad, that this has become so comical. But maybe it has always been this way, and the hyper sensitivity of today is the main factor.

A couple of quotes from 100 years past, from H.L. Mencken...

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

"On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

 'Nuff said!

Let me get this straight!

The excuse being that he jetted around the globe for a couple of weeks, then spent 7 days prepping for the debate, which resulted in that disastrous debate, where he also had a "cold." 

After which he was paraded around a restaurant, and was miraculously cured the very next day... giving a speech in North Carolina, where he energetically read from a teleprompter.

After which it was leaked that he functions best between 10AM and 5PM.

What about those other times of day? What about any future travels, such as a campaign trail? Does his staff actually obey his orders? Are those orders being given by someone else? Is a convicted felon in charge of his father's affairs, sitting in on classified briefings, or is it Jill, or maybe both.

He may have dementia or sundowners. Either of which have the side effects, not only of forgetfulness, foggy thinking... but bouts of rage, where even the closest ones become targets. WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE NUCLEAR BRIEFCASE?

Forget about the nomination, what about the next 6 months and 17 days.   

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +1.9¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -2.2¢, or -0.6%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -1.2%.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude -12.1M barrels; Distillates down -1.5M barrels; Gasoline down -2.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide downward -12.6M barrels, with the SPR rising +398K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $26.37, to $25.87. Gasoline at $15.30 from last week's $15.93. Distillates to $10.57, compared to last week's $10.44.

Despite the drop in inventories, it should be pointed, they are not way off from year's past, as evidenced in the 5 year ranges.

So, I would think the outlook is a moderate rise in gasoline prices for the coming week. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XX

The title says part XX, but the campaign is nearing a "XXX" rating, imho.

The big news being there was a debate. I didn't watch the debate, but couldn't avoid the endless array of comments and memes, etc.

Any discussion of replacing Biden is about one year late. Even if he were to voluntarily drop out of the race, his replacement faces an even higher uphill battle. Remember, the Biden and democrat mantra was about saving democracy. After millions of votes for Biden in the primaries, it seems very undemocratic to force Biden out. At this stage, that is exactly how it would appear. Plus, there is the question of Harris.

Granted a lot has changed in one year. comparing the Biden of the State of the Union to the Biden of this week's debate... what will he be like in another 4 years? 

Of course, the likely beneficiary of Biden's lackluster performance, would be a 3rd party candidate... possibly Kennedy. Kennedy might improve in poll results, but will not threaten to capture any electoral votes, imho. 

I am reminded of 1988. I was so disenchanted with the democrats on the primary ballot, I voted for Jesse Jackson in protest. While I cannot recall being polled before the general election, I likely would have stated Ron Paul. Of course, the day of the election... I voted for Dukakis. That is why I am suspicious of any numbers related to Kennedy.

There has not been any meaningful polls conducted after the debate, to this point (6-28-2024). Therefore the current tabulations do not reflect any debate shifts in opinion.

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.2% to 43.9%. 538 has Trump with a 0.2% lead at 41.1% to 40.9%.

4 years ago, Biden was leading in the polls with 51.1% to  Trump's 41.5%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Polls may indicate some shifting by the next time I report, on 7-7.