A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 14th Edition

Warning... a very long post!

Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide. 

As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??

The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow. 

All of these states are polled as if 3rd parties are on the ballot, including RFK Jr. The Democrat strategy being that 3rd parties pulling support away from Biden moreso, than they are from Trump. 

Further, if these 3rd party candidates are not on the November ballot, then those voters will fall back into line for either Biden or Trump, and the belief being, this will benefit Biden much more than Trump.

So the defenders of democracy are furiously eroding any attempts at democracy, or so it seems.

If they succeed, the race really tightens up, from an electoral count point of view, as in toss-up.

It has made it into the mainstream media, but not really on the evening news. Apparently, it is very undemocratic to interfere with the democrats. /s

Nationally, the polls in those battleground states still show Biden in a precarious position. The problem is down the ballot. It is one thing, as a democrat from [insert district] with a tight election, to paint the republican opponent as being a Trump advocate. Quite another to pledge allegiance to Biden, which can and will be used against said democrat... endlessly.

The current polling comparison, which does omit 3rd party numbers.

A state such as Arizona, does have 3rd parties on the ballot. So the likelihood of a Trump victory in that state remains fairly strong. 

However a seemingly safe state such as Georgia, without the 3rd party option could possibly edge into toss-up or even Biden, given the 8.1% polling for Kennedy.

Maine would likely move back into 1 for Trump and 3 for Biden.

Nevada, which seems to be in the Trump camp, would narrow, but still be in the Trump camp, considering Kennedy's 8.9% polling.

North Carolina, with Kennedy at 8.4%, could become toss-up.

Pennsylvania, with Kennedy at 8.3%, would almost certainly be in the Biden camp, but still in toss-up range.

Virginia, would almost certainly... moved back solidly, into the Biden Camp.

Wisconsin is at 7.5% polling for Kennedy, and would throw the state into the toss-up category.

If Kennedy and other 3rd parties are on the ballot in all the battleground states, the Trump lead of 301~195 in electoral votes over Biden seems quite plausible, with 270 being the magic number.

However, as it stands right now on ballot availability, the Trump lead narrows to 242~207, over Biden.

Hence the "save democracy" campaign, while simultaneously obstructing democracy.

Finally, a word about pollsters. If pollster A, interviews 1000 people and states one candidate leads, by a certain number of points... when they do their next set of interviews, is it the same 1000 people, a different group of people, or a mix. Does pollster B, interview the same group of people, etc.

The results of one poll, does not provide an accurate gauge. Several polls together might give a clearer picture. Then there is the accuracy of such polls, compared to real election results. 

So, there have not been a lot of state level polls to gauge which direction the race is going... post debate. So beware of polls saying this candidate is gaining or losing ground. Still too early. Maybe by end of July, there will be enough data. But who knows what will happen in the next 17 days, let alone the final 114 days before election.

This was way too long a post. Gotta cut back!!

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - July 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. 

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $383.49.

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.79.

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 329.92.

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - July 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]

A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty. 

A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.

That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.

Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y and 0.1% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

Don't get me wrong, I would rather the COLA goes lower, as that indicates less inflation. I do, however, need to adjust my spending, or suck it up.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +2.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -0.5¢, or -0.1%. Days supply slipped from  25.2 to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.7.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -3.4M barrels; Distillates up +4.9M barrels; Gasoline down -2.0M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide rose +3M barrels, with the SPR rising +477K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $25.87, to $23.36. Gasoline at $13.97 from last week's $15.30. Distillates to $9.39, compared to last week's $10.57.

That downward push seems to indicate an easing in pump prices.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 7th Edition

Another week, with post debate polls starting to trickle in. Oddly, there is some truth to the idea that Biden may have weathered the storm, but that doesn't mean he is sailing to victory.

Biden is not really in any better shape, than before the debate. As for the impact, that will require a couple more weeks of data, or possibly more. One single polling outlet is not sufficient and the polls must really be state level to gauge the Electoral votes.

Currently, my numbers indicate a Trump lead of +0.6% over Biden in national polling. 538 has Trump at 42.0%, and Biden at 39.9%. Pre-debate had Trump at 41.1%, to Biden at 40.9%. That might seem that Biden is falling, but he has risen from 39.7% and Trump has ease from 42.2%

In any case, this is far from the 52.1% to 41.5% lead, enjoyed by Biden... exactly 4 years ago.

Also, there is the Electoral Vote situation.

Michigan has moved back into toss-up range, but Maine has moved all 4 EVs into the Trump category. Additionally, New Hampshire has moved into toss-up range, after not being considered a battleground state. 

I have seen some reports of New Jersey and New Mexico as now being toss-ups. I truly have problems with those contentions and will stick with my methodology. That doesn't mean I am right.

So Biden has said he will not drop out of the race. Biden was losing before the debate and that has not changed. The debate has given cover to democrats to alter the ticket, or so they think. Aside from the problem of being a defender of democracy and overlooking the primary votes, they have significant other problems, imho.

Starting with Kamala Harris. Is she a liability to the ticket or the savior? I see no evidence that she would improve the chances, although a V.P. selection could help. Still, she would be the top of the ticket and the knives will come out.

Michelle Obama's name has been pitched, but she has denied interest. She would have the Harris dilemma to contend with, as well.

Replacing Biden and Harris as nominees... would result in major dilemmas.

Its almost as if the Trump convictions were supposed to sink Trump in the polls, and when that did not happen... Biden was thrown to the wolves. He could have easily stated it would be inappropriate to debate a convicted felon. 

Yet now he is getting sage advice from a different convicted felon.

It is so sad, that this has become so comical. But maybe it has always been this way, and the hyper sensitivity of today is the main factor.

A couple of quotes from 100 years past, from H.L. Mencken...

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

"On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

 'Nuff said!

Let me get this straight!

The excuse being that he jetted around the globe for a couple of weeks, then spent 7 days prepping for the debate, which resulted in that disastrous debate, where he also had a "cold." 

After which he was paraded around a restaurant, and was miraculously cured the very next day... giving a speech in North Carolina, where he energetically read from a teleprompter.

After which it was leaked that he functions best between 10AM and 5PM.

What about those other times of day? What about any future travels, such as a campaign trail? Does his staff actually obey his orders? Are those orders being given by someone else? Is a convicted felon in charge of his father's affairs, sitting in on classified briefings, or is it Jill, or maybe both.

He may have dementia or sundowners. Either of which have the side effects, not only of forgetfulness, foggy thinking... but bouts of rage, where even the closest ones become targets. WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE NUCLEAR BRIEFCASE?

Forget about the nomination, what about the next 6 months and 17 days.