This Week in Petroleum Summary January 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption slightly above year ago, yet down very slightly from last week. Pump Prices are drifting higher.

The pump prices do remain down from this time last year.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +1.2M barrels; distillates down -2.5M barrels; gasoline up +1.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Everything seems to be quiet, even with the news about middle east, Ukraine, etc. I think the energy market has rebalanced.

Review of December 2023 data, 4Q GDP, PCE and personal income

Alas, 2023 reports have concluded. The GDP's 4Q advance reading indicates a sterling 3.1% rise. I will make mention of the 5 year Quinquennial revision from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars. As would be expected the numbers jumped 9.0%. I can't help but notice the big drag on GDP of net exports of good and services, slid a whopping -26.7%. 

Even under the revised numbers, that latter component fell another -5.9% from one year ago.

PCE, which is typically 68.7% of GDP under the 2017 revision, made up 58.3% of that yearly increase. 

Which gives pause to the notion of the consumer driving those GDP numbers, when in fact they appear to have been a bit of drag.

Gross private investment, also underperformed. The real over achievers were government and net exports of good and services. 

It is what it is.

PCE ex. food and energy ease from 3.4% to 3.2%. The overall remained unchanged.

All in all, a decent end to the 2023 years.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption down, which is likely expected... considering the wide spread winter weather. Additionally, it is possible that refinery operations were impacted as well. It would take a couple more weeks of data to tell the tale.

Prices do seem ready to rise, but still... more data required.

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -9.2M barrels; distillates down -1.4M barrels; gasoline up +4.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Not sure of the impact of weather on refining, consumption, etc. Time will tell, imho.

My electricity bills over time (January, 2024 Edition)

It is January, and the monthly bill has arrived.

The year over year rolling 12 month has seen a decline of -8.5%. HOWEVER... December of 2022 was frigid, at least compared to December of this year. January has gotten the heat running much more. It is keeping up and its not as cold as that December, 2022 period. At least not yet!

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- January, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of December data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

A slight upward tick on the annual figures... across the board. I would expect some easing, once the January data comes forward.

For the silly ninnies that forget history, attempt to revise history, or are so gullible to be misled by their dear leaders...

Long before inflation was everywhere, the phrase was transitory. Yes Virginia, the USA led that "transitory" inflation, until the rest of the world started catching up. 

The chart is quite "busy", but the timeline is quite accurate. 

'nuff said!

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Rather ho hum, imho. Gasoline onsumption continues in a rather narrow band, with pump prices staying fairly flat. 

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -2.5M barrels; distillates up +2.4M barrels; gasoline up +3.1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Good news continues, but not sure how long that will last. 

1/17/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for December Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, December Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022. Total sales for the October 2023 through December 2023 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2023 to November 2023 percent change was unrevised from up 0.3 percent (±0.3 percent)*.

Hmmm...  "Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022." The BLS listed that same period as having inflation of 3.4%. Which means the seasonal variation and trading-day differences have come into the equation. Otherwise, sales were up a bit more than indicated, imho.

First up the revisions...

We continue a pattern of previous months being revised downward, so the monthly changes are somewhat suspect.

When adjusted for inflation, the annual shows an improvement of +2.2%. The January numbers will be quite interesting, imho. The January report, adjusted for inflation, is slightly above the December number with inflation adjustements. Revisions will likely take place. 😒

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

The quantity of goods has not yet matched the highs of both March and April of 2021 and 2022. It will be interesting to see if a seasonal repeat is in store for early spring.

Mail order, vehicles and general merchandise led the way, with $4.305M of the $3.909M increase. That means there were some losers. Gasoline was down -$691M. The rest were slightly above or slightly below.

Seasonal factors likely drove the mail order and general merchandise, so can't reasonably expect a repeat in January. Gasoline currently remains relatively flat, compared to December.

Like I said... the revisions for January's report should be very interesting.