A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XX

The title says part XX, but the campaign is nearing a "XXX" rating, imho.

The big news being there was a debate. I didn't watch the debate, but couldn't avoid the endless array of comments and memes, etc.

Any discussion of replacing Biden is about one year late. Even if he were to voluntarily drop out of the race, his replacement faces an even higher uphill battle. Remember, the Biden and democrat mantra was about saving democracy. After millions of votes for Biden in the primaries, it seems very undemocratic to force Biden out. At this stage, that is exactly how it would appear. Plus, there is the question of Harris.

Granted a lot has changed in one year. comparing the Biden of the State of the Union to the Biden of this week's debate... what will he be like in another 4 years? 

Of course, the likely beneficiary of Biden's lackluster performance, would be a 3rd party candidate... possibly Kennedy. Kennedy might improve in poll results, but will not threaten to capture any electoral votes, imho. 

I am reminded of 1988. I was so disenchanted with the democrats on the primary ballot, I voted for Jesse Jackson in protest. While I cannot recall being polled before the general election, I likely would have stated Ron Paul. Of course, the day of the election... I voted for Dukakis. That is why I am suspicious of any numbers related to Kennedy.

There has not been any meaningful polls conducted after the debate, to this point (6-28-2024). Therefore the current tabulations do not reflect any debate shifts in opinion.

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.2% to 43.9%. 538 has Trump with a 0.2% lead at 41.1% to 40.9%.

4 years ago, Biden was leading in the polls with 51.1% to  Trump's 41.5%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Polls may indicate some shifting by the next time I report, on 7-7. 

Review of May 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers are of concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The GDP for 2024Q1 was revised ever so slightly upward to 1.4% annualized. Only time will tell if that gets revised on September 26th.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 26th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +4.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -7.9¢, or -2.2%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -2.4%.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory up 3.6M barrels; Distillates down 377K barrels; Gasoline rose 2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +9.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $22.87, to $26.37. Gasoline at $15.93 from last week's $13.95. Distillates to $10.44, compared to last week's $9.65.

All things considered, the outlook for pump prices going any lower is not very likely. In fact, the potential for a very slight rise is in the offing. Which is odd, given the lowering of consumption and the days supply rising. 

Still... nothing extreme in the current forecast, imho.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- June, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of May data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

We must remember that inflation in the USA was transitory, until the rest caught up. 

 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIX

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.0% to 43.9%. 538 has Biden with a 0.3% lead at 40.8% to 40.5%.

Still not a meteoric rise for Biden at this juncture, compared to this time, 4 years ago, which had Biden with 51.0% to  Trump's 41.7%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Michigan and Wisconsin edge back out of the margin of error territory... in favor of Trump. Georgia eased to near margin of error territory, but still favors Trump.

The result being 293 EVs for Trump; 216 EVs for Biden; and 29 EVs still in toss-up territory, with 135 days to go.

I realize that Fox news had a poll with Biden holding a slightly bigger lead national lead, but I really struggled to understand why it got so much attention from the "mainstream" media. That "mainstream" media that proclaims Fox as misinformation/disinformation... is suddenly accurate. 

C'mon man!!

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline rose +0.1¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -12.2¢, or -3.4%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -0.9%.

Inventories fell across the board, with crude inventory down -2.5M barrels; Distillates down 1.7M barrels; Gasoline down -2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +153K barrels, with the SPR rising +386K.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $23.60, to $22.87. Gasoline at $13.95 from last week's $13.36. Distillates to $9.65, compared to last week's $9.51.

All things considered, the outlook for pump prices going any lower is not likely. With refinery operation at levels not seen in 2 years, and before that... 2018. Not sure they can squeeze any more out, if demand were to rise further. With the 4th coming up... a rise in pump prices is not out of the question.

Advance Retail Sales Report- June18, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $703.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above May 2023. Total sales for the March 2024 through May 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2024 to April 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Wow... even with the typical downward revisions of previous months... the number barely moves upward.

When adjusted for inflation...

For sake of comparison, the current inflation adjusted retail sales is the lowest since February, 2021.

The biggest losers on year to year and monthly are home furnishings, building material and garden supplies. 

Mail order stores continue to gain, along with miscellaneous stores.

It was not a great report, but not a disaster. More in the lines of stagnant, imho. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVIII

The race is further tightening on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.2% from two weeks ago, now knotted up at 43.9% each or very slight Biden advantage, at 43.898%, with Trump at 43.894%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a +1.1%.

Kennedy is really closing the gap with Biden and Trump... in the unfavorable category. So maybe familiarity really does breed contempt. /s

The current comparison, to same time four years ago...

There is a dramatic drop off from 2020's polling to today's polling. That is reflected in the electoral votes, as well... which has also tightened, but maybe not as much as one would think.

The Trump total of 268, is down from 297 of two weeks ago. Biden's 219 remains the same. Both Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10) eased into the margin of error range, although still giving Trump an edge.

I am not buying into the notion of some pollsters, that Trump is now leading in Maine and Virginia being toss-up. Also, the idea of Florida being in play... is a bit of fantasy, imho.

There will be many more polls to come, so things can change. Whether this tightening is a result of recent events... remains to be seen.

Oddly, 3rd party activities may be distorting the polling numbers. It is quite one thing to tell a pollster you are voting for a 3rd party candidate... and quite another to actually go into the booth and do just that.

From the outset of this series, I made mention of the tendency of Trump to underperform in polls from previous years, compared to actual voting results. I also, gave my rationale as to why. 

My point, and opinion being... Kennedy supporters are likely finding both Biden and Trump as objectionable. But when it comes time to vote, and the realization that Kennedy cannot win any state under the electoral system... will they then vote for the least objectionable of Biden and Trump. As mentioned earlier... Kennedy's unfavorable ratings are in line with both Biden and Trump. 

Is "none of the above" going to be on the ballot?

It is a bit of fun to watch this all unfold, with 142 days to go. 

My electricity bills over time (June, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The June bill came in lower than the past 3 years and down -8.4% from one year ago. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -8.2% from one year ago. Another hopeful sign.

As for average by year, (note 2024 only has 6 months).

In theory, the remainder of 2024, should pull that number down. How much?

I should also point out... my weighting for electricity, is higher than the CPI. That is due to my overall expenditures being much lower than the Statistical CPI household. Which also means that movement in electricity bills have greater impact on my overall spending.

The weather is set to really heat up, so next month's electricity bill will likely come in much higher. I won't sweat it too much, as the thermostat will stay the same. 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - June 12th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Finally an uptick in real earnings. Depending on when you consider turmoil in the labor market, due to covid, the hourly rate is either 13¢ or 1¢ above that period.

All in all, a good report, though the turmoil between then and now still lingers, imho.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - June 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.2% Y/Y and 0.3% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

Yep, can't say I am happy with my own inflation rate edging up, but tis life.

In the way too early COLA projections...

Another way of looking at things, is my personal inflation rate is now moving above the projected COLA increase. That has not happened in several years, so I am even less happy.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 12th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -4.9¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -14¢, or -3.9%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, bu -2.3%.

Inventories rose across the board, with crude inventory up +3.7M barrels; Distillates up +881K barrels; Gasoline up +2.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slipped from last week's $23.97, to $22.87. Gasoline at $13.36 from last week's $14.75. Distillates to $9.51, compared to last week's $9.21.

While both gasoline and diesel pump price averages edged up today, the outlook is still a bit downward, although bottom appears near. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 5th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -7.2¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by -4.9¢, or -1.4%. Consumption slipped... per this past report, and remains below year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory down -3.8M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline up +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +14.4M barrels.

Refinery output was steady and above year ago levels

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $23.19, to $23.97. Gasoline at $14.75 from last week's $14.35. Distillates to $9.21, compared to last week's $8.84.

The trends suggest a continuing drift downward in pump prices, imho. 

What will be interesting over the next couple of weeks, will be whether consumption continues to ease in diesel consumption. What I sometimes overlook, while following gasoline prices, is those diesel prices. With sharp inventory build above year ago levels and consumption slipping... there appears a lack of demand. 

But why?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVII

The race is tightening a bit on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.7% from two weeks ago, now standing at 0.2%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a 1.3%.

The current comparison to same time four years ago...

The national average is currently far different than anytime during the 2020 election cycle, as well as the actual election.

As for the Electoral Vote projections, this has tightened a bit, but still favors Trump. This is due to Michigan slipping into toss-up territory.

Trump still holds a 297-216 lead in Electoral Votes, with the threshold of 270, needed to win. There are still 156 days until the election. 

A couple of weeks until the next update, unless major changes... which I do not expect.