This Week in Petroleum Summary July 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -2.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.5¢, or -7.1%. Days supply fell to 24.3, from 24.5. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude down -3.4M barrels; Distillates up +1.5M barrels; Gasoline down -3.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -1.8M barrels, with the SPR rising +685K barrels.

Despite the across the board draw, the total products is still +53.3M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has edged up from last week's $25.05, to $25.24. Gasoline at $15.60 from last week's $14.91. Distillates to $9.64, compared to last week's $10.13.

While the spread moved upward, gasoline inventories fell, and consumption seems to have levelled off.. A sure sign of higher pump prices, except it also indicates pump prices in a narrow band.

A slight rise in gasoline pump prices seems to be in the offing, but it do so last week, as well.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 28th Edition

A lot can happen in 8 days. If you believe the media, Harris is surging, although it would appear that the numbers aren't much different than just before the debate. Trump leads with 267 EVs, to Harris at 209... with 270 being the magic number.

What is lacking now, that was not prior to debate... is enough data to give a clear analysis. There are many states that have not been polled this past week, but we can assume that some states such as California will be Blue, and some like my state of Kentucky... will be Red. 

There are a number of states that fall into the "battleground" definition. Texas and Florida are no longer in that realm, imho.

The issue of battleground states is important, as small numbers in some states, caused the election to move one way or another.

As an example...

A mere 42,918 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, moved Biden to 306 electoral votes, instead of the 269~269 tie. Nevada's 33,596 would have moved Trump back into the White House.

It's interesting to note that IF Trump had won that election, neither he nor Biden would be running for re-election this year. It would also be questionable if Harris would be anywhere on the horizon. Something to think about, imho.

So battleground states are important.

States with asterisks do not have enough polling data to really differentiate candidate status, imho, with the exception of North Carolina. The TU or Toss-up is colored to indicate the slight lean... based on current data. Data is from this past week. 

Also the yellow blocks indicate states with Kennedy on the ballot. Which again, has the democrats attempting to protect democracy by removing Kennedy from the ballot. This is going on in several states.

I would think additional polls will be revealed this coming week, so I would expect some changes. As for the ERR column... this is for error rating of previous election cycles. As an example and denoted in the 2020 election statistics chart, Wisconsin has historically under-polled for republicans over the past 4 election cycles. Why? I do not know. So a polling tie in Wisconsin would likely result in a decent lead for Trump and its 10 EVs. Just not yet. 

Georgia on the other hand, has a near spotless polling to election record. My initial reaction is to add Georgia's 16 EVs to the Trump column, but a bit more data would clear the air for me.

So, I am settling with the Trump - 267 ~ Harris - 209, for now.

Review of June 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP came in above expectations at 2.8% annualized. I was puzzled by the slower growth in Services at 2.2% annualized, which helps explain the 2.3% annualized for personal consumption. Durable goods up 4.6% and nondurables at 1.4%, both annualized.

Overall a good report, but I would be a bit concerned if fixed investment can continue its expansion, which is equipment driven, while inventories keep building.

As for the PCE excluding food and energy... not much movement. Granted the market is anticipating a rate cut in September... and it might be warranted. A string of rate cuts might not be so warranted, imho. 

We can start the cycle again for next month, with the likelihood of CPI being at or slightly above this past month's reading. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline increased +0.1¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -8.3¢, or -2.3%. Days supply fell to 24.5, from 25.5. For perspective... last year was 24.1.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude down -3.7M barrels; Distillates down -2.8M barrels; Gasoline down -5.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -3.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +690K barrels.

Despite the across the board draw, the total products is still ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has jumped up from last week's $22.35, to $25.05. Gasoline at $14.91 from last week's $13.56. Distillates to $10.13, compared to last week's $8.79.

While the spread moved upward, inventories fell, and consumption seems to have eased upward. A sure sign of higher pump prices, except it also indicates pump prices in a narrow band.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 20th Edition

Contrary to reports, Biden could still possibly win in November, although his paths to success... are limited.

My own inexpert analysis, indicates a slight narrowing of national polls to +0.3 points. 538 has the Trump lead widening to +3.2 points from last week's +1.9. Interestingly, the Trump increase seems to be at the expense of Kennedy. This may be due to changing polling methods.

Generally, polls do nationwide, with a full slate of candidates, then extrapolate the data to meet the state specific. However, with the focus on "battleground" states, many polls are becoming state specific. Therefore, the state specific poll will match with state ballot. In many of the "battleground" states, Kennedy is not on the ballot, therefore, is not on the poll. 

In any case, Kennedy's polling has slipped from the usual 9.5%~10.5%, into the 8.6% range. That falloff, does match the Trump increase.

As for the nonsense of the democrats putting Kennedy on their ticket and easily beating Trump... that is overlooking the animosity of the dems regarding Kennedy. It would be a toss-up as to which they dislike more... Trump or Kennedy.

As stated, not much real change in the national numbers. For the state level...

Again, not much movement. At this point, Trump has the edge on Electoral votes. However, the Kennedy conundrum, still persists.

The states highlighted in yellow have given ballot access to Kennedy. So the question remains... if Kennedy is not on the ballot, which candidate will they then choose... or leave the ballot blanks.

Even with this conundrum, the edge goes to Trump, at 263~197. Several states, now leaning favorably to Trump, could ease back into toss-up, if Kennedy does not make the ballot... in those states.

It's fun to watch, and who knows that will happen this upcoming week. I might have to start all over from scratch. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- July, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the current similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

There are multiple factors involved in sorting out the variances in when inflation started.

• Clogged ocean shipping containers in wrong places.
• Massive stimulus
• Vaccine rollout
• Ukraine Invasion
• Perception of definite strikes at ports for July, 2022
• Timing of rate hikes

As for political considerations, the stimulus rollout could be considered political and there is whether the Ukraine invasion would have taken place. All other items would likely have occurred, imho.

In any case, the inflation situation has largely abated, so it is time to give this type of review... a rest.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline fell -2.5¢ for the week, and remains below year ago levels, by -5.3¢, or -1.5%. Days supply jumped to 25.5, from 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.9.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -4.9M barrels; Distillates up +3.5M barrels; Gasoline rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +650K barrels.

So despite the crude draw, the crude plus refined products and SPR was up strong.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased further from last week's $23.36, to $22.35. Gasoline at $13.56 from last week's $13.97. Distillates to $8.79, compared to last week's $9.39.

That downward push does bode well for slightly more easing at the pump.

Advance Retail Sales Report- July 16, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Hard to keep up with the revisions, but here they are (click, to enlarge)...

It doesn't take much effort to see before revisions, the nominal figure is akin to the advance of September, 2023. 

However, when adjusted for inflation...

The quantity of goods is flat. Looking at the 12 month moving average, based on inflation adjustments... current is below, and has been for all of 2024.

Not sure where the good news, regarding growth... is to be found. Granted, it has not fallen off a cliff, but "real" growth is not to be found in this report, imho.

There were winners on the month and year, highlighted in green, with losers in red, with all numbers in nominal dollars (thousands).

Clearly, gasoline stations would show a nominal dollar drop, with decrease in pump prices. Food services and drinking places continues to increase.

My electricity bills over time (July, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The July bill came in much higher than last year. +23.8% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -4.8% from one year ago. However, I am not sure that will last, as it has been hot AND dry in my neck of the woods. 

Hopefully, a cool spell will ease into the forecast. 

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 14th Edition

Warning... a very long post!

Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide. 

As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??

The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow. 

All of these states are polled as if 3rd parties are on the ballot, including RFK Jr. The Democrat strategy being that 3rd parties pulling support away from Biden moreso, than they are from Trump. 

Further, if these 3rd party candidates are not on the November ballot, then those voters will fall back into line for either Biden or Trump, and the belief being, this will benefit Biden much more than Trump.

So the defenders of democracy are furiously eroding any attempts at democracy, or so it seems.

If they succeed, the race really tightens up, from an electoral count point of view, as in toss-up.

It has made it into the mainstream media, but not really on the evening news. Apparently, it is very undemocratic to interfere with the democrats. /s

Nationally, the polls in those battleground states still show Biden in a precarious position. The problem is down the ballot. It is one thing, as a democrat from [insert district] with a tight election, to paint the republican opponent as being a Trump advocate. Quite another to pledge allegiance to Biden, which can and will be used against said democrat... endlessly.

The current polling comparison, which does omit 3rd party numbers.

A state such as Arizona, does have 3rd parties on the ballot. So the likelihood of a Trump victory in that state remains fairly strong. 

However a seemingly safe state such as Georgia, without the 3rd party option could possibly edge into toss-up or even Biden, given the 8.1% polling for Kennedy.

Maine would likely move back into 1 for Trump and 3 for Biden.

Nevada, which seems to be in the Trump camp, would narrow, but still be in the Trump camp, considering Kennedy's 8.9% polling.

North Carolina, with Kennedy at 8.4%, could become toss-up.

Pennsylvania, with Kennedy at 8.3%, would almost certainly be in the Biden camp, but still in toss-up range.

Virginia, would almost certainly... moved back solidly, into the Biden Camp.

Wisconsin is at 7.5% polling for Kennedy, and would throw the state into the toss-up category.

If Kennedy and other 3rd parties are on the ballot in all the battleground states, the Trump lead of 301~195 in electoral votes over Biden seems quite plausible, with 270 being the magic number.

However, as it stands right now on ballot availability, the Trump lead narrows to 242~207, over Biden.

Hence the "save democracy" campaign, while simultaneously obstructing democracy.

Finally, a word about pollsters. If pollster A, interviews 1000 people and states one candidate leads, by a certain number of points... when they do their next set of interviews, is it the same 1000 people, a different group of people, or a mix. Does pollster B, interview the same group of people, etc.

The results of one poll, does not provide an accurate gauge. Several polls together might give a clearer picture. Then there is the accuracy of such polls, compared to real election results. 

So, there have not been a lot of state level polls to gauge which direction the race is going... post debate. So beware of polls saying this candidate is gaining or losing ground. Still too early. Maybe by end of July, there will be enough data. But who knows what will happen in the next 17 days, let alone the final 114 days before election.

This was way too long a post. Gotta cut back!!

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - July 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. 

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $383.49.

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.79.

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 329.92.

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - July 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]

A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty. 

A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.

That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.

Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y and 0.1% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

Don't get me wrong, I would rather the COLA goes lower, as that indicates less inflation. I do, however, need to adjust my spending, or suck it up.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +2.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -0.5¢, or -0.1%. Days supply slipped from  25.2 to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.7.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -3.4M barrels; Distillates up +4.9M barrels; Gasoline down -2.0M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide rose +3M barrels, with the SPR rising +477K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $25.87, to $23.36. Gasoline at $13.97 from last week's $15.30. Distillates to $9.39, compared to last week's $10.57.

That downward push seems to indicate an easing in pump prices.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 7th Edition

Another week, with post debate polls starting to trickle in. Oddly, there is some truth to the idea that Biden may have weathered the storm, but that doesn't mean he is sailing to victory.

Biden is not really in any better shape, than before the debate. As for the impact, that will require a couple more weeks of data, or possibly more. One single polling outlet is not sufficient and the polls must really be state level to gauge the Electoral votes.

Currently, my numbers indicate a Trump lead of +0.6% over Biden in national polling. 538 has Trump at 42.0%, and Biden at 39.9%. Pre-debate had Trump at 41.1%, to Biden at 40.9%. That might seem that Biden is falling, but he has risen from 39.7% and Trump has ease from 42.2%

In any case, this is far from the 52.1% to 41.5% lead, enjoyed by Biden... exactly 4 years ago.

Also, there is the Electoral Vote situation.

Michigan has moved back into toss-up range, but Maine has moved all 4 EVs into the Trump category. Additionally, New Hampshire has moved into toss-up range, after not being considered a battleground state. 

I have seen some reports of New Jersey and New Mexico as now being toss-ups. I truly have problems with those contentions and will stick with my methodology. That doesn't mean I am right.

So Biden has said he will not drop out of the race. Biden was losing before the debate and that has not changed. The debate has given cover to democrats to alter the ticket, or so they think. Aside from the problem of being a defender of democracy and overlooking the primary votes, they have significant other problems, imho.

Starting with Kamala Harris. Is she a liability to the ticket or the savior? I see no evidence that she would improve the chances, although a V.P. selection could help. Still, she would be the top of the ticket and the knives will come out.

Michelle Obama's name has been pitched, but she has denied interest. She would have the Harris dilemma to contend with, as well.

Replacing Biden and Harris as nominees... would result in major dilemmas.

Its almost as if the Trump convictions were supposed to sink Trump in the polls, and when that did not happen... Biden was thrown to the wolves. He could have easily stated it would be inappropriate to debate a convicted felon. 

Yet now he is getting sage advice from a different convicted felon.

It is so sad, that this has become so comical. But maybe it has always been this way, and the hyper sensitivity of today is the main factor.

A couple of quotes from 100 years past, from H.L. Mencken...

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

"On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

 'Nuff said!

Let me get this straight!

The excuse being that he jetted around the globe for a couple of weeks, then spent 7 days prepping for the debate, which resulted in that disastrous debate, where he also had a "cold." 

After which he was paraded around a restaurant, and was miraculously cured the very next day... giving a speech in North Carolina, where he energetically read from a teleprompter.

After which it was leaked that he functions best between 10AM and 5PM.

What about those other times of day? What about any future travels, such as a campaign trail? Does his staff actually obey his orders? Are those orders being given by someone else? Is a convicted felon in charge of his father's affairs, sitting in on classified briefings, or is it Jill, or maybe both.

He may have dementia or sundowners. Either of which have the side effects, not only of forgetfulness, foggy thinking... but bouts of rage, where even the closest ones become targets. WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE NUCLEAR BRIEFCASE?

Forget about the nomination, what about the next 6 months and 17 days.   

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +1.9¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -2.2¢, or -0.6%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -1.2%.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude -12.1M barrels; Distillates down -1.5M barrels; Gasoline down -2.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide downward -12.6M barrels, with the SPR rising +398K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $26.37, to $25.87. Gasoline at $15.30 from last week's $15.93. Distillates to $10.57, compared to last week's $10.44.

Despite the drop in inventories, it should be pointed, they are not way off from year's past, as evidenced in the 5 year ranges.

So, I would think the outlook is a moderate rise in gasoline prices for the coming week.