The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 45 and Harris at 35. Thus, Trump at 290 and Harris at 248. 270 is needed to win. 66 days to go.
Harris has made inroads in Georgia and Nevada and narrowed the gap in several other states. However, that bounce may be over and we have entered a plateau for both candidates.
Should be fun to watch, imho.
The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward.
This week's full report.
Gasoline pump prices fell -3.7¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.3¢, or -9.5%. Days supply slipped 23.9. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.
With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]
The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 229 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 96.
My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.
This week's full report.
Gasoline pump prices fell -4.7¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -46.7¢, or -12.1%. Days supply was steady at 24.2. For perspective... last year was also 24.2 days.
The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 235 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range last week.
Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump/Vance 301:237 Harris/Walz. The change from last week, was Arizona moving from a slight edge to Trump/Vance, to a slight edge for Harris/Walz.
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, July Report.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023. Total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period were up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
As for those revisions...
This week's full report.
Gasoline pump prices fell -1.4¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -40.6¢, or -10.5%. Days supply rose from 24.7, to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent.
It was a bit below the expectations of 3.0% on the annual, and the 0.2% was seasonally adjusted up from the actual 0.116%. So not so bad, and in fact... fairly decent.
For the record: February 2021, 1.7%; March 2021, 2.6%.
Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...
My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y, but slid -0.2% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...
On to the Real Earnings.
Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.19 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...
The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July. (historical releases)
The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD.
Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%.
It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.
So (with all revisions)...
The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump with 235 to 213 for Harris. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range.
Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump 312:226 Harris.
Red TU (toss-up) means leaning republican, although within the MOE (margin of error). Blue TU means leaning democrat, within the margin of error.
The margin of error is based on weighted MOEs of published polls. Which widened this past week.
The ERR, is a weighted calculation based on error rate of polls versus election results, discounting their MOE for the past 4 presidential election cycles, where available. The ERR is also based on the minimum error rate, as well.
I have previously discussed some of the potential reasons for such rates of error.
The oddity of some states with a much higher rate of error from the same pollster, still escapes me. A pollster can nearly predict Georgia with accuracy, but the same pollster completely miss the mark in Wisconsin.
The data is based on 60 polls, dated from July 25th, to August 9th. Not all states and districts have been polled since the upheaval in the race, but there is recognition of some blue states staying blue, as well as some red states staying red.
Only 7 of these states, with 47 polls, currently fall into battleground status, out the 11 represented in the chart.
More polls can be expected in the coming week, but will likely be heavily tilted towards the so called battleground states.Remember when Florida, Iowa and Texas were considered battleground states? Remember when Ohio was considered a bellwether state? Interesting terminology, that a wether was a castrated male sheep/goat of a flock, with a bell hung around its neck to lead the flock. Somehow, it does sound appropriate for elections! I digress!
This week's full report.
Gasoline pump prices fell -3.3¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -37.0¢, or -9.7%. Days supply rose from 24.3, to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.
It has been said that opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one. The race has tightened, so pucker up!
Overall, Harris has taken the lead in national polling and the Electoral Vote count has tightened. Last week had the Trump count at 267, with Harris at 209.
It should be noted that polling data is severely lacking from non battleground states, as well as some battleground states. Realistically, only polling that began on or after 7-22, is considered. 54 polls of 15 states during that period, with 41 of those spread across just a handful of battleground states.
With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [ Note, the USA(EU method) is direct...
