With today's BLS inflation report, the numbers look like this...
The PPI report, from yesterday, lends to the belief the inflation rate is rising.
The COLA projection currently looks like this...
It sits at the 3.5% increase level, but might make it to 3.6%, as energy will likely jump more than some of the tepid forecasts. I will go out on a limb and say 3.5% as my official outlook with an outside chance of 3.6%. My own rate of inflation is 2.7%, primarily due to my very limited driving.
Of course there are some that think the R-CPI-E should be used, but note the 3.3% y/y rise in that index. It would likely land at 3.4% y/y.
The underlying argument for the R-CPI-E is the current 366.138 basket, compared to the CPI-W's 328.481, OR the headline CPI-U number of 334.980. All of which list the same timeframe for 100. My problem with the R-CPI-E has been it lagging the past few years. My old article on this.
Sorry, there is no magical formula, nor are the heroes of the Marvel Universe going to spring to life and rescue all of us.
