This Week in Petroleum Summary March 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to edge up with gasoline inventories declining... result prices moving upward at the pump. Current projection is upper $3.60ish, in the next few weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.9M barrels; distillates up 600K barrels; gasoline down again at -3.4M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has leveled off since last week to $32.24, with gasoline at $20.09 from last week's $20.05. Distillates at $12.15, compared to last week's $13.13.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel in a narrow band. 

That's all for this week.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- March, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of February data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are aligning in a narrow band across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

This is from the "beginning".

I will not bore you with the whys, but a quick look at some important issues...

Another month in the bag, with inflation seemingly slowing on an annual rate, but generally speaking, the month over month rate, when annualized... is well above the annual rate. More work to do?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII

It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.

The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error. 

The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.

The general election is 231 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 312 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 10EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.6%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Still a lot of time to go and many more polls to digest. UGH!!

My electricity bills over time (March, 2024 Edition)

Just for fun, I track my electricity usage and voila!!

Here is the annual average by year, which is distorted for 2024, as a few higher months are in play. Should come down as the heating season transitions to cooling. The latter will lift back up until the transistion period into heating.

Another way to view consumption is with a rolling 12 month average...

Obviously, the peak was in 2022, which was frought with energy price turmoil. Things appear to be settling back down, but I have no expectation for a return to levels seen only a short time ago. The rolling average is -5.4% below year ago levels.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption is heading up, just ahead of this week, last year.

Pump prices seem to be edging upward. They now appear to be heading toward a national average in the $3.60ish range. Time will tell. However, diesel seems to be trending lower.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.5M barrels; distillates up 1.0M barrels; gasoline down again at -5.6M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has shot up since last week to $33.18, with gasoline jumping to $20.05 from last week's $17.02. Distillates at $13.13, compared to last week's $12.41.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel remaining relatively flat. 

That's all for this week.

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

3/14/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for February Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, February Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 through February 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent).

Of course the previous 2 months were revised downward...

The result in inflation adjusted sales, looked like this...

Since the pre-covid timing, the inflation report...

The average for the monthly sales starting from March 2021...

The trend is undeniably downward. 

It's not all gloom and doom, as there are areas seemingly on the uptick. Read the report and download the data, to see those areas.