2024 Presidential Election Update, October 5th Edition

The race seems to be shifting, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 290 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 22, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 16 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 31 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, moving towards Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, easing towards Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump
• Pennsylvania, slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

The race is really to close to call, but there is some evidence the Harris campaign is facing headwinds.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 2nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.17¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -61.8¢, or -16.2%. Days supply jumped to 25.3. For perspective... last year was 27.2 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +3.9M barrels; Distillates down -1.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -249K barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +26.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $16.22, to $15.70. Gasoline down to $7.87 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $7.83, compared to last week's $7.80.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -7.5¢ ~ 2.5¢. Take your pick. However, if Iranian petroleum infrastructure were to be somehow hampered... all bets are off, imho.

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 28th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 240 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 72, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 66 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 38 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, seemingly favoring Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, very slim in favor of Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump, but Harris cutting into lead
• Pennsylvania, very slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

It is one thing to say these polls are within the margin of error, but that margin of error usually indicates the point of confidence. Most of the polls are near the center of those MOE ranges. That is NOT indicating much in the way of confidence.

Translation: This race is DAMN tight!

Review of August 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PCE ex food and energy inflation numbers continue to be a concern.

A lot of hoopla about the overall, but that PCE ex-F&E edged upward.

Now for the revisions in previous months...

Personal income, etc. is shown here.

The GDP 3rd estimate can be found here.

Note the uptick in the trade deficit. A part of that may be the front loading of imports in preparation of possible East and Gulf Coast port strike, possible on 10-1. Both sides seem to be playing chicken at this point. Each day of a strike would in theory... hamper $4.5 in imports and $2.8B in exports. 

That front loading should likely have a bit of drag on 3rd Quarter GDP, but certainly not like the 1st half of 2022... which was almost entirely responsible for those back to back negative quarters.

By end of October, we will have the first glimpse of 3Q GDP and whether there was a strike.

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 25th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -66.8¢, or -16.5%. Days supply slipped to 24.9. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days.

Inventories slid across the board, with crude slipping -4.5M barrels; Distillates down -2.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -1.5M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -13.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

The total products is still +31.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread edged up from last week's $15.63, to $16.22. Gasoline up to $8.42 from last week's $8.26. Distillates to $7.80, compared to last week's $7.37.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 21st Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 67, with an edge still favoring Trump at 46 and Harris at 21. Thus, Trump at 291 and Harris at 247. 270 is needed to win. 45 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump with  slim edge, at 60%

Georgia - 16 Evs... Trump with the edge, at 85%

Michigan - 15EVs... Harris with a razor thin edge

Nevada - 6 EVs... Harris, razor thin, but edging up. 

Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 73%, down sharply from last week

Those represent 67 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 5, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has taken the lead in the national composite... 49.9 ~ 49.6. In 2016, Clinton led Trump 42.0 ~ 40.3. In 2020, Biden led Trump 50.3 ~ 43.5

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- September, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the current similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

I point this out, as while there were some similar causes, there were causes of significant difference, and the timing was different as well.

In any case, the inflation story has about run its course, or so we can hope!