My electricity bills over time (November, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI. 

The October bill came in much higher than last year. +16.2% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is up +0.4% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy, as it is below other cost of living factors.

[EDIT: 12-17-24. While I will continue to track the my electricity usage for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of said usage going forward]

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 2 of ?

Just updated the projections for final vote tally.

Still projecting Trump to slip just below the 50% + 1 vote majority. Currently at -41,686. Of the remaining projected votes... 91.1% are in typical Democrat states, with 56.4% in California.

The final vote tally will likely be -3.8 million of 2020 final tally.

Reviewing the states, compared to 2020. (less is in RED)

It would seem that voter turnout may have been a factor in the toss-up states. While there are a few "red" states with lower turnout, the eye catching numbers of some "blue" states... does leave some questions, imho.

Advance Retail Sales Report- November 17th, 2024

October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

 Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.6% annual, and up 0.12% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

I will allow you to review the data from the Census Bureau, and make your own judgements. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.5¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.1¢, or -7.8%. Days supply slid to 22.9. For perspective... last year was 24.0 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +2.1M barrels; Distillates down -199K barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -4.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -5.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +81K barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.00, to $17.95. Gasoline rose to $8.99, from last week's $8.44. Distillates rose to $8.96, compared to last week's $8.57.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.7¢ ~ +3.0¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.