CPI DATA results, March Reports 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade above consensus estimates. (historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The food index increased 0.4 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.3 percent. The energy index decreased 0.6 percent over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes both declined.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February, after rising 0.4 percent in January. Categories which increased in February include shelter, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and airline fares. The index for used cars and trucks and the index for medical care were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 6.0 percent for the 12 months ending February; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. The energy index increased 5.2 percent for the 12 months ending February, and the food index increased 9.5 percent over the last year. 

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That's all from the BLS. Now on to my inflation stats. Which receded annually to 5.0% and 0.2% month to month.

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I would hope for a repeat during March, but with nearly half the month already gone... it is looking a bit iffy. 

Overall, the inflation outlook is improving, but still some pinkish areas overall. The PPI report tomorrow might provide a better outlook.

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Most everything I have read, indicates the CPI report was "close" to expectations. The upside surprise was the Core figures, which were tad above expectations. 

Which brings me to the March expectations. Everything I am reading indicates next month's release will have a much lower rate of inflation, as in 5.2% range. However, core is expected in the range of 5.7%, or to increase. Also on the month to month.

For that to happen the non core part - food and energy,  would have to drop fairly sharply. Not really seeing it at this point.

Gasoline consumption through week of Mar-3-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were up 8.7¢ this week, to $3.446. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.173. 

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is +0.3% above one year ago levels. However, the national average pump price is -17.4% below same period.

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +92.8M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be a rise of about 7¢ per gallon. Hopefully, I am wrong. I am basing this on the following...

• Refinery utilization is slightly below last week and last year.
• Consumption is increasing above last year's levels
• Imports fell and exports rose. 

Unfortunately, I nearly nailed the forecast from last week, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. So hoping I am wrong for this upcoming week.

Crude Inventories Slip - Mar 08 2023

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks up again, -1.7M barrels, from last week; Distillates up +138K Barrels; and Gasoline slid -1.1M barrels. 

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WTI at $76.84, compared to $77.69, one week ago, and $119.69 a year ago (peak). 

Refinery output eased on a weekly basis, and still slightly below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 503.9M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. 7.0M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 31.9, compared to last year's 27 days.

The SPR remains steady for the past 8 weeks at 371.579M barrels.

Gasoline consumption through week of Feb-24-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down 3.8¢ this week, to $3.359. A year ago, the price was $3.619. 

The streak for lower prices ended yesterday and quite possibly for the season. 

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is +0.5% above one year ago levels. However, the national average pump price is -7.1% below same period.

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +90M barrels. If you saw last week's report, that is down, as imports outnumbered exports... obviously. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be a rise of about 8¢ per gallon. Hopefully, I am wrong. I am basing this on the following...

• Refinery utilization is flat and below last year.
• Consumption is increasing above last year's levels
• Gasoline is a global commodity and the dollar is slipping a tad, making U.S. gasoline prices more attractive.
• Crude prices, across the board are starting to edge up.

But seriously, what do I know?

Crude Inventories continue to build-Mar 01 2023

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks up again, +1.2M barrels, from last week; Distillates up +179K Barrels; and Gasoline slid -874K barrels. 

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WTI at $77.58, compared to $73.95, one week ago, and $100.21 a year ago. 

Refinery output remained unchanged on a weekly basis, and still slightly below one year ago levels. 

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 497M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. 21.4M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks are quite healthy, compared to this time last year (2nd highest- 2021), and the highest since May 21, 2021.

The Administration has suggested another SPR release, but the SPR is currently unchanged, for the past 7 weeks.

Insanity is Bi-partisan!

Not that long ago, the 25th Amendment became a big story among democrats (Nancy Pelosi), as they sought a way to remove Trump from office. After January 6th, republicans joined in. Apparently, Pence was considered a better option.

However, it never took root and likely would not have been implemented. A simple read of the relevant section, would seem to indicate why it would have been unlikely. Majority of cabinet... twice, 2/3 of house and senate. It would have been easier to impeach, imho.

Fast forward to 2023, and once again someone is suggesting the 25th Amendment. This time initiated by disgruntled republicans, in regards to Biden. Those same republicans that despise Kamala Harris.

This is what baffles me... They want to replace Biden, on the pretext he is not of sound mind, with someone they regard as being flaky. I would have to suggest those making such arguments, are also not of sound mind, flaky, etc.

Realistically, the proponents of the 2021 and the 2023 25th Amendment usage are not crazy, but really do believe their constituency is dumber than a box of rocks, and this makes for further divisions among groups that relish the hyper partisan rhetoric. It's much easier to keep the public unaware of the fleecing going on, by both parties.

Sadly, I am beginning to believe they are correct about their constituencies.

Being a part of those constituencies... what the hell does that make me? 

I already know, so spare me the comments.

PCE Revisions and End of Month Inflation Results (All Reports)

So here it is...

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This also, includes the latest revisions in the PCE release. I include the previous month's report to indicate the revisions.

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You will notice some sharp upward revisions, compared to last month. That +0.6% M/M increase was after the major adjustment in December's numbers. Without that December adjustment, that +0.6% would have been much higher. 

Don't worry too much, as these numbers get adjusted on a regular basis. It does serve to point out that inflation is not falling off a cliff.

The good news would be the "trimmed mean PCE". It actually slid -0.1%, after holding at 4.7% for the preceding 5 months. 

The BEA Report. The Dallas FED Report. For a breakout of "trimmed"... 

• Components included and excluded from this month's Trimmed Mean

It is an Excel download. Of the 54 items not trimmed, I utilize 7 (13%.) Of the 121 trimmed out, I utilize 42 (34.7%.)

Oh well, my own CPI is 5.5%. Using the trimmed mean, it is 4.9% v the FED's 4.6%. 

I would write about the GDP, but it gets revised on a regular basis. Next month will be revised and the annual revision in July will take place for all. Sometimes, as much as 3.0% change from the original advance release.