This Week in Petroleum Summary May 8th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -2.3¢ for the week, but remains +10.3¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up this past report.

Inventories were again mixed, with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +560K; Gasoline up +915K.

Refinery output continues to lag, compared to year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has dropped from last week's $27.71, to $26.46. Gasoline at $16.43 from last week's $17.92. Distillates roset $10.03, compared to last week's $9.79.

It's hard to imagine any upward drift in gasoline pump prices on a national average basis. Consumption will need to pick up for prices to elevate above current levels. Even with reduction in gasoline production, the days supply is a bit high for early May. 

I am not complaining, but the question is why consumption is lower than last year? Some reasons might be good, but some might also be bad. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XV

Oh my!! After all the hoopla of the past week, I am not seeing any major shifts. 

Before starting, I have dropped Texas and Florida from the battleground states, most frequently visited in past elections. 

For Texas, in 2020, Trump generally led in the polls with a poll margin of 1.1%, just before the election. He won with a 5.57% margin. He currently leads in the polls with a 10.1% advantage, compared to same time in 2020... of 2.9%.

Florida polls this time in 2020, had Biden with a 2.2% lead, and a 2.5% lead just before the election. Trump won the state with 3.36% as the margin. Trump currently has a 10.3% lead over Biden.

I hope that answers the why.

Looking at the remaining battleground states for current polling and 2020 polling...

This time in 2020, saw Biden leading in all these states... except Georgia. The actual vote margins were much thinner than polls, everywhere except Minnesota and Virginia.

Fast forward to current, and Biden only leads in Minnesota and Virginia, with Minnesota being very tight, when adjusting for polling errors of past years.

So despite the hoopla, not much has really changed, except Pennsylvania has eased back into Trump territory.

Still a long way to go, but a look back to 2020 and/or 2016, does not look favorable for a dramatic shift, imho.

Until next time...

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 1st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline edged up 0.3¢ for the week, but also up 5.3¢ from year ago level. Consumption is below last week and year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, but only due to distillates down 732K barrels. Crude was up 7.3M barrels, with gasoline up 344K barrels.

Refinery output continues to lag, against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has dropped from last week's $29.44, to $27.71. Gasoline at $17.92 from last week's $19.49. Distillates at $9.79, compared to last week's $9.95.

With recent developments over concern for demand... I would expect the pump prices to start falling. 

The big question is why the demand is slipping. I doubt it is due to pump prices, but rather constraints in other areas... limiting cash available at the pump. In any case, it is worth watching, as there are troubling signs.

Review of March 2024 data, 1Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so wonderful, incomparison...

Inside all that pink is some troubling food related issues. Even though energy is somewhat in a narrow band, the food outlook is upward. The CPI-U expectations for the report on April, seemingly indicates a repeat of Mar-2024, outpacing the monthly core, although core is expected to ease a bit. Still above the overall CPI-U.

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2024

There seems to be quite a jump in spending, versus Disposable personal income... for 2 consecutive months. Not sure there was much cash on hand, so the disposable is likely in the form of additional debt. 

Of course the above report mentioned a rise in goods. Perhaps it did, but the 1Q GDP did not reflect that. 

As for GDP, it now stands at 1.6% annualized for 1Q2024. The Trade deficit loomed large in the quarter and shows no signs of abating.

The reports for the month, ended up in so-so territory, imho. I am sure it will get spun hard in each direction. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Pump prices were flat on the week, although down -0.7¢ from last year. Consumption is down from last year's mark, but slightly up from previous week.

Inventories were mixed in this week's report. Crude, -6.4M barrels; Distillates, +1.6M barrels; Gasoline, -600K barrels.

Refinery output continues to lag, against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased slightly from last week's $29.55, to $29.44. Gasoline at $19.49 from last week's $19.37. Distillates at $9.95, compared to last week's $10.18.

Gasoline pump prices seem to be trading in a narrow band, with some downward pressure in Diesel pricing.

Nothing dramatic in this week's report, imho.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- April, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of March data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

As always, here is a snapshot of early inflation or transitory, until it turned in to everybody's problem.

To rehash, the U.S. transitory inflation was a product of massive stimulus and a snarled global supply chain. Retailers in a desperate bid to restock, inflated shipping container prices, shipping costs, etc. Which did lead to pressures globally. 

Then came the energy crunch, which really impacted globally... for awhile.

Inflation seems to be steadying across the board. The expectations for a continuing slowing... is up in the air.