Let me get this straight!

The excuse being that he jetted around the globe for a couple of weeks, then spent 7 days prepping for the debate, which resulted in that disastrous debate, where he also had a "cold." 

After which he was paraded around a restaurant, and was miraculously cured the very next day... giving a speech in North Carolina, where he energetically read from a teleprompter.

After which it was leaked that he functions best between 10AM and 5PM.

What about those other times of day? What about any future travels, such as a campaign trail? Does his staff actually obey his orders? Are those orders being given by someone else? Is a convicted felon in charge of his father's affairs, sitting in on classified briefings, or is it Jill, or maybe both.

He may have dementia or sundowners. Either of which have the side effects, not only of forgetfulness, foggy thinking... but bouts of rage, where even the closest ones become targets. WHO IS IN CONTROL OF THE NUCLEAR BRIEFCASE?

Forget about the nomination, what about the next 6 months and 17 days.   

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +1.9¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -2.2¢, or -0.6%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -1.2%.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude -12.1M barrels; Distillates down -1.5M barrels; Gasoline down -2.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slide downward -12.6M barrels, with the SPR rising +398K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased from last week's $26.37, to $25.87. Gasoline at $15.30 from last week's $15.93. Distillates to $10.57, compared to last week's $10.44.

Despite the drop in inventories, it should be pointed, they are not way off from year's past, as evidenced in the 5 year ranges.

So, I would think the outlook is a moderate rise in gasoline prices for the coming week. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XX

The title says part XX, but the campaign is nearing a "XXX" rating, imho.

The big news being there was a debate. I didn't watch the debate, but couldn't avoid the endless array of comments and memes, etc.

Any discussion of replacing Biden is about one year late. Even if he were to voluntarily drop out of the race, his replacement faces an even higher uphill battle. Remember, the Biden and democrat mantra was about saving democracy. After millions of votes for Biden in the primaries, it seems very undemocratic to force Biden out. At this stage, that is exactly how it would appear. Plus, there is the question of Harris.

Granted a lot has changed in one year. comparing the Biden of the State of the Union to the Biden of this week's debate... what will he be like in another 4 years? 

Of course, the likely beneficiary of Biden's lackluster performance, would be a 3rd party candidate... possibly Kennedy. Kennedy might improve in poll results, but will not threaten to capture any electoral votes, imho. 

I am reminded of 1988. I was so disenchanted with the democrats on the primary ballot, I voted for Jesse Jackson in protest. While I cannot recall being polled before the general election, I likely would have stated Ron Paul. Of course, the day of the election... I voted for Dukakis. That is why I am suspicious of any numbers related to Kennedy.

There has not been any meaningful polls conducted after the debate, to this point (6-28-2024). Therefore the current tabulations do not reflect any debate shifts in opinion.

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.2% to 43.9%. 538 has Trump with a 0.2% lead at 41.1% to 40.9%.

4 years ago, Biden was leading in the polls with 51.1% to  Trump's 41.5%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Polls may indicate some shifting by the next time I report, on 7-7. 

Review of May 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers are of concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The GDP for 2024Q1 was revised ever so slightly upward to 1.4% annualized. Only time will tell if that gets revised on September 26th.

This Week in Petroleum Summary June 26th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline rose +4.5¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -7.9¢, or -2.2%. Consumption edged up... per this past report, yet still remains below year ago levels, by just -2.4%.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory up 3.6M barrels; Distillates down 377K barrels; Gasoline rose 2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +9.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen from last week's $22.87, to $26.37. Gasoline at $15.93 from last week's $13.95. Distillates to $10.44, compared to last week's $9.65.

All things considered, the outlook for pump prices going any lower is not very likely. In fact, the potential for a very slight rise is in the offing. Which is odd, given the lowering of consumption and the days supply rising. 

Still... nothing extreme in the current forecast, imho.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- June, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of May data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

We must remember that inflation in the USA was transitory, until the rest caught up. 

 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIX

The race is still tight on the national level, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden at 44.0% to 43.9%. 538 has Biden with a 0.3% lead at 40.8% to 40.5%.

Still not a meteoric rise for Biden at this juncture, compared to this time, 4 years ago, which had Biden with 51.0% to  Trump's 41.7%. Of course, Electoral Votes are the ones that really matter. As an example, in 2016 Clinton had 2.8 million votes more than Trump. That should settle the idea of republic v democracy at the national level. Of course, we live in a rather ignorant country.

Michigan and Wisconsin edge back out of the margin of error territory... in favor of Trump. Georgia eased to near margin of error territory, but still favors Trump.

The result being 293 EVs for Trump; 216 EVs for Biden; and 29 EVs still in toss-up territory, with 135 days to go.

I realize that Fox news had a poll with Biden holding a slightly bigger lead national lead, but I really struggled to understand why it got so much attention from the "mainstream" media. That "mainstream" media that proclaims Fox as misinformation/disinformation... is suddenly accurate. 

C'mon man!!