A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVII

The race is tightening a bit on the national level, with Trump edge of 0.7% from two weeks ago, now standing at 0.2%. This is tighter than fivethirtyeight, which has the Trump edge a 1.3%.

The current comparison to same time four years ago...

The national average is currently far different than anytime during the 2020 election cycle, as well as the actual election.

As for the Electoral Vote projections, this has tightened a bit, but still favors Trump. This is due to Michigan slipping into toss-up territory.

Trump still holds a 297-216 lead in Electoral Votes, with the threshold of 270, needed to win. There are still 156 days until the election. 

A couple of weeks until the next update, unless major changes... which I do not expect.

Review of April 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so bad, actually.

The best that can be said, is inflation has stabilized, with a further slowing in the cards, by end of the year.

What is striking, is the downward tilt in disposable income AND personal consumption expenditures.

If you carefully look, the previous month was also revised downward, for those two items.

If spending is slowing, it would follow that demand is slowing, which would/should... slow inflation going forward.

As for the GDP revision... it was not unexpected. The story has now become the service sector. Not terribly worrisome, but what caught my eye, is the trade imbalance, which jumped. 

Oh well, that's a wrap for May.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- May, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of April data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat with the exception of April-2024. That data was calculated by me]

Inflation across these countries are now very similar, after some issues early on.

A reminder, that U.S. inflation rose upward in advance of those other countries.

While it has been popular, of late to say inflation was everywhere... it wasn't until it was. The period between was called "transistory".

There were factors unique to the U.S., as well as those other countries in the EU, as well as the U.K.

Unique to the E.U. and U.K. were natural gas issues over Ukraine/Russia

Unique to the U.S. were...

• Rapid roll out of vaccines
• Proclamations of Covid being whipped.
• Massive stimulus mailed directly to households, plus government programs
• Refinery outages  in Texas.
• Am eminent dock workers strike, that didn't take place.

Common to both...

• Low petroleum and petroleum product inventories
• Container congestion, due to empty containers in all the wrong places.
• European decision to curtail NG and petroleum imports from Russia.

So the finger pointing becomes clear, when comparing the conditions that were in place, the actions taken + direct results, etc.

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline fell -1.3¢ for the week, and is now below year ago levels, by 1¢, or -0.3%. Consumption did edge up again per this past report, although still trailing year ago levels.

Inventories rose across the board, with crude inventory up +844K barrels; Distillates up +2.5M barrels; Gasoline up +2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +13.1M barrels.

Refinery output rose the past week, but still slightly trails year ago numbers.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fallen from last week's $26.03, to $23.19. Gasoline at $14.35 from last week's $16.13. Distillates fell to $8.84, compared to last week's $9.90.

The trends suggest a continuing drift downward in pump prices, imho.

Way too early projections for C.O.L.A. (May, 2024 edition)

The C.O.L.A. for 2025 won't be announced until October 10th, 2024, but I have read some early speculation.

In mid-May, following fresh inflation data, the Senior Citizens League upped its 2025 Social Security COLA estimate ever so slightly to 2.66%. That's an improvement from 1.75%, but it may read as a disappointment in light of more recent COLAs.

I'll just jump in with a current projection of 2.7% to 3.0%.

Naturally, it is way too early, but I can join in on the fun of speculation. 

Yes, House prices are more than in 1980

I ran across an article and thread about housing costs compared to 1980. Generally, it follows the median price and interest rates.

I used, the following as sources for data...

• stlouisfed.org
• census.gov
• bls.gov

I'll start with the median house price (stlouisfed.org), accompanied by median house size (square feet-census.gov).

WOW! that is a big jump. According to BLS.gov, that 1,600 square foot home of 1980, should cost about $252,521.37 today.

Yes but the houses are much bigger today... so that $252,521.37 for that 1,600 square foot home should bounce to $378,782.055 for the 2,400 square foot home. 

Still about $42,000 over priced, unless something about that median home has changed.

The Census Bureau, tells us that the average double of bathrooms have doubled over that period. Wow! Garages are more prevalent and larger.

Once you wrap your head around that, it does not seem so unreasonable. However, in a time when families are smaller... why are houses so much bigger?

Is it need v want? More than likely, it is want.

Of course, there is the "build it and they will come" mentality. Afterall, developers realized that a 100 X 100 lot requires the same investment in storm/sanity sewers; utilities; streets; lighting, etc. A larger house would gather a larger profit... than a smaller house. 

Municipalities in many cases... set development standards on type of housing, etc. With an eye on real estate tax revenue. The bigger house just generates more tax revenue. 

And not just from the house.

Which house would more likely have a fairly new family sedan such as a Camry and which would more likely have a Lexus. Compare the type of boats, etc. The list goes on.

So yes, houses cost more, but I would offer the suggestion that pride and appearance prevails over needs.

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 22nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Gasoline rose +0.4¢ for the week, but remains  up +7.1¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up again per this past report, although still trailing year ago levels.

Inventories were mixed, with crude inventory up +1.8M barrels; Distillates up +379K barrels; Gasoline down -945K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +8.5M barrels.

Refinery output continues to lag behind year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $25.35, to $26.03. Gasoline at $16.13 from last week's $15.97. Distillates rose to $9.90, compared to last week's $9.39.

Despite today's uptick at the pumps, the trend suggests prices drifting lower.